Week 13 Weekend Watch, Playoff Special -- Class 4A preview
Class 4A Regional Finals
Upset Special: No. 4 Thomas Johnson (7-4) over No. 3 Patterson (9-2) ; (Friday @ 7 p.m.)
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Why the Patriots will win: For the second week in a row I'm picking the Patriots in an upset. Even without injured running back-linebacker Jeremy Grove (East Carolina), this team has too much talent and too many weapons to have four losses this year. Last week Thomas Johnson took down the No. 1 seed in the region, Urbana, 21-14. Running back-linebacker Nick Forbes (California) ran for 161 yards and a touchdown on offense and was a force on defense. Return man Deandre Scott busted through for a 78-yard punt return. Defensively, Forbes and Co. are allowing just 11 points per game this season, despite multiple hiccups. If TJ wins, they'll reach their first state semifinals since 2007 (last year they lost in the first round).
Patterson is not a perennial playoff contender. In fact, this is the Clippers' first playoff appearance since 2004. That being said, they have blown out their last two opponents this year and have recorded three straight shutouts. But Patterson's Baltimore County opponents aren't up to the level of TJ. Not only is Thomas Johnson the largest school Patterson has faced, but they're also the most well-rounded (with apologies to Dunbar).
Best Game Analysis:
No. 1 Wise (10-1) vs. No. 2 Flowers (10-1) ; (Saturday @ 1 p.m.)
There's a compelling argument this should be the 4A state title game. Here's a prediction: Whoever wins this one will go on to win the championship.
As expected, the Pumas and the Jaguars had to battle just to get to the second round. Prince George's County 4A is the toughest division in Maryland, and the top four teams - Wise, Flowers, Suitland and Eleanor Roosevelt - are all state-title contenders.
Wise played Roosevelt to a scoreless tie for three quarters before finally breaking through for the game's only touchdown in the final frame. Running back Rahsaan Moore (Maryland) punched it in from 1 yard out, giving the Pumas a 6-0 victory and a spot in the regional finals.
Flowers, meanwhile, trailed Suitland entering the fourth quarter. But thanks to two John Clark touchdown runs in the final frame -- he rushed for 148 yards and three touchdowns overall - the Jaguars pulled out the victory.
This is the second straight year both Wise and Flowers prevailed in the first round. Last year, the Pumas defeated the Jaguars in the regional finals. Will history repeat itself?
It's safe to say they're not thinking about last year in PG County. More likely, they'll be looking at the game two weeks ago, when Flowers spoiled Wise's perfect season and their streak of eight straight shutouts with a 14-12 victory. The Pumas scored touchdowns in the first and third quarters, the former on a 3-yard run by Deontre Johnson and the latter on a 3-yard run by Moore. The Jaguars scored touchdowns in the second and fourth quarters, the former by Chris Gregory and the latter by Reggie Woods. The difference? Flowers running back Raymone Wilson ran in a two-point conversion after Woods' score. The Jaguars held Wise's high-powered rushing attack to just 94 yards. The Pumas, meanwhile, racked up an unprecedented 13 first downs and 185 yards on the ground, both season highs against Wise.
The Jaguars, who are scoring 33 points each game, have a quintet of running backs who rush for an average of over 300 yards per game. Woods and Clark lead the attack with close to 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns between them. But Wilson and Chris Gregory are just as effective when they enter the game. Flowers has a stellar offensive line with Isaiah Shelton, Warren Daniels, Darron Black, Calvin Calloway and Phillip Coleman.
But defensively, Flowers is no Wise. They don't have any shutouts and they don't have any Division I stars on the line or in the secondary. Last week they allowed a season-high 27 points and over 300 yards of total offense. But if they repeat their performance against Wise from two weeks ago -- when Chris Akinsuyi plugged holes and the line played well up front- they'll be fine stopping Wise.
Of course, the Pumas were averaging 36 points per game. But that was before these last two weeks, when they combined for 20 points total. The key to stopping Wise is limiting their power-running attack with Johnson, Jabril Baldwin, Moore and Justin Coles. Despite having a number of receiving options and a good quarterback in DeAndre Smith, Wise rarely diverges from the run. But Wise hasn't needed to pass because the running game usually puts up more than 200 yards on the ground.
Wise's defense reemerged last week, notching their ninth shutout of the season. The Pumas have the most fearsome foursome in the state with elite defensive end Moore and fellow linemen Anthony McDaniel, Charles Owens and Sam Burrell. Johnson is a beast at linebacker, and Titus Till (Maryland), Andre Makell and Baldwin are stellar cover men.
Second Best Game Analysis:
No. 1 Arundel (11-0) vs. No. 3 Old Mill (9-2) ; (Friday @ 7 p.m.)
Arundel and Old Mill have played each other this year, but not since Week 1, when the Wildcats defeated Patriots, 34-27. Ancient history. Both teams have been through a season's worth of trials and tribulations.
Arundel has passed every test, although last week was their closest game since … Week 1. The Wildcats defeated Annapolis, 18-6, which was the lowest point total for Arundel since the 2007 playoffs. Quarterback Billy Cosh, owner of double-digit state passing records, didn't throw his first touchdown until the fourth quarter. But, as the old cliché goes, "a win's a win." Arundel lives to play another week.
Every Arundel discussion begins with Cosh (perhaps the best pure passer in Maryland high school history). Except for here. MdHigh will start with the Wildcats' defense. Last year the offense bailed the defense out. But the defense's struggles came back to bite them in the state semifinals against Linganore. This year could be different. Led by linebacker Bobby Partilla (103 tackles), they are allowing just 12 points per game and have posted two shutouts. Several of their less-impressive results came after the first-stringers were pulled with Arundel up big. Last week they held Annapolis to just 200 yards of total offense.
Another reason this season is different: Arundel has a running game. Out-of-nowhere back Joseph Blackwell has rushed for 1,144 yards and totaled 15 touchdowns. He had 132 yards and two touchdowns last week.
OK, so Arundel is still about Cosh. The Kansas State commit leads an attack that is averaging 46 points per game. Cosh ranks No. 1 in passing yards (2,917), touchdowns (51) and completion percentage (67 percent). He's even rushed for 267 yards and two scores. Cosh's main beneficiary is record-setting receiver R.J. Harris, who hauled in 94 receptions for 1,362 yards and 27 touchdowns this year.
Don't give the crown to Arundel yet. Old Mill always plays Arundel tough and the Patriots seem to be back on track after losing to Broadneck two weeks ago. After struggling on defense in a number of games, Old Mill shocked the 4A and shut out North Point last week, 24-0. The Patriots forced four turnovers and dominated North Point's offensive line. Old Mill held the Eagles to five first downs and 121 yards of total offense. Which Patriots defense will show up this week -- the one that dominated North Point, or the one that gave up almost 30 points per game in the three games prior?
There are no questions about the offense. Running back Josh Furman ranks fifth in the state with 1,612 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. Backfield-mate Jason Clements is a terrific between-the-tackles runner; he rushed for 98 yards last week. Quarterback Joe Thorton is no Cosh, but he has a strong arm and can make plays downfield. The key is the offensive line, which has excelled all season with Adam Palmer, Corey Beall and Justin Mullins.
Third Best Game Analysis:
No. 1 Sherwood (9-2) vs. No. 3 Paint Branch (9-2) ; (Friday @ 7 p.m.)
Last week, Paint Branch won their first playoff game in 34 years with an 18-17 triumph over Whitman. Now, they face the monumental task of beating Sherwood, last year's 4A champions.
Here's how Paint Branch can hang with Sherwood:
First, receiver Ivan Tagoe needs to continue to stretch the field. Last week he caught nine passes for 102 yards. He ranks eighth in Maryland with 47 receptions for 693 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Second, quarterback Tracy Martin, who sat out last week with a thigh injury, must be healthy and nimble against a stout defensive front. Martin has been inconsistent this season -- less than 50 percent completions, seven interceptions -- but he takes chances and isn't afraid to throw deep (13 touchdowns). Plus, Martin can run a little, too (475 yards, four touchdowns).
Third, running back Bene't Willis, who suffered a knee injury last week, needs to be active. If not, Paint Branch loses a 1,000-yard rusher.
Fourth, Paint Branch's defense must remain a strong point They have been solid these last six weeks, allowing less than eight points per game. Last week they held Whitman to 133 yards of offense and eight first downs. Even when they lost to Sherwood back in Week 3, 19-0, the defense gave up just 10 points and less than 100 yards.
Sherwood will be a tough out. They are coming off an easy 24-2 win over Springbrook. Quarterback A.J. Pignone led the way with 136 yards passing and a touchdown. Running back Cyrus Britt didn't put up his usual spectacular numbers (56 yards on 14 carries), but he still managed to reach the end zone. Britt has 1,160 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Leading the way for Pignone and Britt is Sherwood's fantastic offensive line with Adam Berger, Grant McCarthy, Josh Hertz, Neil Kress and Oliver Pettenati.
Defensively, the Warriors are giving up just seven points per game. Behind Gregory Nixon, Sherwood has five shutouts this season and would have had a sixth if it wasn't for a Springbrook safety last week. One interesting note: Sherwood is known as a disciplined team, but last week they committed an uncharacteristic 11 penalties. Don't expect that trend to continue.